China and Monetary Policy Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 10000 words

China and Monetary Policy - Coursework Example Outside activities in assembling segments were just amassed in labor-escalated areas, for example, food, hardware, development materials, materials and toys. In the late 1980s, outside assembling speculation represented in excess of 70 percent of the absolute FDI streaming into China; venture kept on expanding quickly, arriving at in excess of 80 percent around 1990 (NBS, 1991). With expanding involvement with the Chinese market, and gathered information about China's mechanical structure, remote firms broadened their business scope into physical framework offices, including development, vitality, transportation and capital-concentrated and innovation serious apparatus and hardware. Such ventures included increasingly innovative sources of info, higher beginning up costs, and bigger monetary duties and, in this manner, remote firms confronted more serious dangers. With China's promotion to the WTO, different parts, particularly benefits, have gotten mainstream to outside financial sp ecialists. In China, FDI is exceptionally agglomerated. It favors urban communities where focused businesses are genuinely evolved (Belderbos and Carree, 2002). Marshall (1898) recommends that the pool of specific gifted work, exchange of moderate sources of info, and overflows were main thrusts of modern agglomeration. Watchman (2000) contends that mechanical bunches increment the efficiency of constituent firms, redesign the limit of group members for advancement and profitability development, and animate new business arrangement. Due to the absence of neighborhood information, outside speculators experienced alleged drawback of an outsider status in China. Mechanical groups have helped outside speculators to lessen these disservices (He, 2002, pp.1030). In this manner, remote speculators like to choose geologically agglomerated enterprises with solid restricted business linkages. Conventional FDI hypotheses (Hymer, 1976; Kojima, 1978; Dunning, 1980) recommend that mechanical conveyance of ou tside venture relies upon similar points of interest in have economies and the possession explicit preferences that global partnerships (MNCs) hold. Dunning (2000) contends that variables impacting MNC mechanical decisions have gone past the common gifts in the time of globalization, and that profits by modern agglomeration are assuming an undeniably significant job. Along these lines, modern dispersion of FDI in have economies may be affected by industry-explicit outer economies, which emerge from geological nearness of related firms and restricted business linkages. There is some distributed writing concerning mechanical examples of FDI in have economies. Caverns (1974), for example, considers remote firms' offers in Canadian and UK producing businesses during the 1960s and underlines the significance of impalpable capital, preferences accumulating from the activity of multiplant endeavors and the quality of innovative assets. Ratnayake (1993) infers that outside responsibility fo r will in general be higher in aptitude concentrated and innovation serious enterprises and those in ventures getting a charge out of elevated level insurance in Australia. Aswicahyono and Hill (1994) look at determinants of remote speculation partakes in the Indonesian assembling division and discover item separation, innovative limit, ability power, supreme capital

Exclusion and Essentialism in Feminist Theory †MyAssignmenthelp.com

Question: Talk about the Exclusion and Essentialism in Feminist Theory. Answer: Presentation: As the sun ascends on a nippy Monday morning I gradually open my eyes, from the highest point of the window of our little kitchen I could see the yellow shading brought by the looming dawn. At that point from a separation I heard the strides, their significance was simply evident I was late once more. I hastily woke up from the skeleton bamboo bed tossing her bedsheet into the close by seat. One stage towards the entryway and a coldblooded thump shook the air it was trailed by a brutal voice. sleep time is over go set up your kin for school (Scott, 2008). My mom a short earthy colored lady with a gracious face, was known as one liberal lady by the network this however repudiates what she has been to me her compliance to the way of life of Makonde of Niger was overpowering. With this impact, she resembled fathers apparatus constantly prepared to execute the new principles forced into the house by the huge man. My eyes quickly took a gander at my siblings bed on the other corner of the house and couldn't miss the two bodies looped together, she immediately raced to them and shake them alert with energy David an evaluation 6 kid was the quick to open his eyes and was soon on his feet. Ceaser however required somewhat more influence being simply in grade four he was not used to getting up that early particularly following a monotonous end of the week ( Collins English Dictionary, 2013). By 07:00 the two young men were prepared and I put together their lunch and wave them well by for school thereafter I raced to the kitchen to pick a cultivator. To me, it was currently time to go with mother in the firm. I had at first moved on from the Junior school and should join the senior level three months prior. As much as I was attempting to overlook the occasions it was too soon to delete the whole circumstance from the brain. The night I had gotten my outcomes I was excessively overpowered perhaps the best school had acknowledged my solicitation to go along with them for the senior levels dependent on the good grades I oversaw in the last junior national assessment (Davis, 2008). On arriving at home with the news fathers outward appearance quickly was sufficient to put off the entirety of my desires. Janet, you know our money related circumstance we are a simple worker rancher, how would you anticipate that us should discard $2000 every year for a long time, for what reason should you simply look for a spouse and extra us the misfortunes. The words come out gradually yet their hold up couldn't be thought little of as they gradually sink in on my head for my entire life dreams and expectations gradually blurred (Crenshaw, 1991). Miriam Janets mum structure her relationship with other town ladies in spite of knowing very well that the legislature have heightened the journey for young lady youngster training through arrangement of bursaries didn't trouble right her better half, no, that will be disregard she was required to obey by their way of life and that was last after all he had just revealed to her they were putting something aside for the instruction of their two youth young men and that was sufficient motivation to chop down pointless use. My instruction reserves appeared to have splendidly fitted in that class (DiQuinzio, 1993). It took me just 10 minutes to arrive at the tomato homestead and join mother in picking the ready ones as we hang tight for fathers pickup to come ship them to the nearby market. With my little information in business I could bandage that the ranch however little scope could create up to $1000 every week, except for this to happen we expected to begin promoting the item in Vangu the close by town. Being a young lady, I needed to hush up about all the considerations, all things considered, I just needed to figure out how to make dinners and clean the house as we anticipate an admirer who will meet dads necessities (de Beauvoir, 1973). Subsequent to laboring for 2 hours ceaselessly I had a go at connecting with my mom despite the fact that a non-open minded lady I had an inclination at a point she will prevail upon me. From the start, this was hard being an ignorant lady she saw not many things with regards to training and business success. As I attempted to clarify the focuses she took them in individually and they were soon on a similar side. On that night, I sat quietly outside the passageway to our fundamental house as I anticipate the dinner which was set up in the kitchen. From I separation I could hear mother attempting to convince father with respect to my focuses. All abrupt I become cheerful yet this was before father last reaction. He was not going to attempt any dumb thought from the ladies as he had enough skill on the most proficient method to maintain his organizations business. young lady kid training had no spot in their social history nor was he going to take a stab at being the ladys legend (DiQu inzio, 1993). In this vignette, I have concentrated on the gendered wildernesses where the weight of increasing proper training to the young lady youngster is communicated. The local African culture is giving no an incentive for the young lady youngster instruction. In the situation, my ownership of essential aptitudes in business was not worth the chance to seek after the course further. The Makonde culture of Niger is progressively worried by the kid to the degree that father is prepared to put something aside for the little fellows as opposed to push for my training. I have demonstrated the intersectionality by the dubious job that the ladies play in running their families, my mom is a hesitance to contend against her significant other. Despite the fact that she knows about government sponsorship of young lady kid training she acknowledges my new job as an insignificant nursery worker. The wilderness is imperative to consider communicating the weight of culture in the advancement of a young lady kid. Many created nations have increased a ton from the informed females in the general public along these lines for the creating African countries to increase financial advancement they should pick up from the ladies also. The significance of ladies education is clear and should be put resources into by first battling the poor societies (Mernissi, 1994). References Collins English Dictionary. (2013). Complete Unabridged . HarperCollins Publishers. Crenshaw, K. W. (1991). Mapping the Margins: Intersectionality, Identity Politics, and Violence Against Women of Color. Stanford Law Review. Davis, K. (2008). Intersectionality as trendy expression: A human science of science viewpoint on what makes a women's activist hypothesis effective. Women's activist Theory, 60-81. de Beauvoir, S. (1973). The Second Sex. New York: Vintage Books. DeFrancisco, V. P., Palczewski, C. H. (2014). Sexual orientation in Communication. Thousand Oaks. California: Sage. DiQuinzio, P. (1993). Avoidance and Essentialism in Feminist Theory: The Problem of Mothering. Hypatia. Mernissi, F. (1994). Dreams of Trespass: Tales of a Harem Girlhood. Morocco: Perseus Books. Scott, J. W. (2008). Transfeminism and the Future of Gender. Ladies' Studies on the Edge. Duke University Press.

Marketing Strategies

Marketing Strategies Marketing and Marketing Strategies Home›Marketing Posts›Marketing and Marketing Strategies Marketing PostsINFORMATION NEEDS The business informational needs would be very important as they would make up the business profile. The information which the customers would need so much about the business would include the following;Postal Contact addressPhysical addressWebsite to contain;ProductsServicesOrganization achievementsOrganizational managementThe business will therefore ensure that all the information pertaining to this information are readily made available to the people to ensure that positive image about the business is formed in their minds  (Cappo, 2003).PERSONAL SELLING Personal selling will not really be required. The business is very big and complex systems which make the process of communication on the personal basis not only are tedious, but also in effective.The business however will strive to uphold effective communication and interactions with the customers in a sufficient way to ensure that customer support is adequately given and maintained (Adler, Rosenfield, Townee, 1995). This will however be given through the website, the ‘contact us’ option for direct communication with the company personnel representative will be provided. This will contain the in built email where the customers can send their requests for business response.In addition, it will also contain the hotline telephone numbers to ease the communication with the customers. One of the numbers to be used in this situation will be toll free to the customers as the company will cover the cost. This will enhance effective business and the customer communication.Training to communication personnel For most effective and accurate communication, the business will ensure that;The business will therefore employ trained personnel to manage this modern communication system. The people who will be employed to handle the customer calls will be well trained and properly informed abo ut the products and services which the company will be offering so as to give the most accurate and relevant feedback to the customers (Carroll Buchholtz, 2008).The personnel who will be responsible to handle mails will be well trained in the information technology, specifically the computer studies in addition to the business orientations.Incentives to communication and sales personnelThe sales force will be given their basic salary and a variety of benefits in relation to the kind and quality of work that they do. The following will be some of the areas where the employees will be able to benefit from the company;The sales personnel will be liable to receive commission on in relation to the amount of the sales which they do to the business.The sales personnel will be in a position to accumulate points with every successful sale which they make to the company. These points would then be channeled to the reward scheme where the employees will be rewarded fairly and in good values.E valuation of sales The evaluation of sales performance will be based on the quantity an individual sell in a given period of time. Equal and fair opportunities will be given to everybody to showcase their work skills and success for good rewardsCOMMUNICATIONOBJECTIVES The business communication objectives will be aimed at customer satisfaction. Therefore they would be stated as;To give the timely relevant information to the customer requestsTo capture accurately the customer needs and orders to be worked onTo give the customers the most easy way to communicate and interact with the businessCOMMUNICATIONS STRATEGYThe business communication strategies are the ways meant to increase the business image profile among the customers (Adler, Rosenfield, Townee, 1995). The development of positive image about the business in the mind of the customers would prove to be very important to the business management and success.Advertising mediums The internet will form the major advertising medium for the business. The business will make use of the end user related soft wares and programmes to integrate with other soft wares to relay the business information to the people who form part of both the existing and the potential customers.Public relations The public relations programmes would begin from the recruitment of the relevant people to give the business the positive outlook to the outsiders. The business will consequently maintain this positive image by:Offering high quality services and products to the customerBeing pro active to customer needs rather than being retro activeDelivering the customer needs in time, in the right place, right quantities, qualities and right specifications (Christina Spurgeon Spurgeon, 2008).Sales promotions The sales promotion to be used in the business would include;After sales services; This will include transport of the goods purchased to the customer premises.It will also include the provision of warranty to the goods produced and sold to our customers.Provision of technical advices would also be used in places where it would be possible to be appliedDirect advertisements would be held with very high esteem. Two major forms would be used:The use of business website to relay major information to the business customersUse of the online generated and developed advertisementsNOTE: In some other rare cases, television advertisements during the prime time programmes will also form part of the promotional activities.ADVERTISING AND PROMOTIONS EFFECTIVENESSThe major way to measure the success of the advertising and promotional activities will majorly be based on the amount and volume of sales. The sales would then be departmentalized for the effective management and evaluations (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1999).This is possible to make out by comparing the achieved and the planned levels of sales. This will provide direct link in the level of success. Control mechanisms would then follow to ma ke the necessary corrections.

The Changing Composition Of Workforce And Values - 918 Words

The Changing Composition of Workforce and Values South Florida is a very diverse region of the United States. A large part of the population consists of immigrants from all over the world. The author Stephen Covey once said â€Å"Strength lies in differences, not in similarities.† This quote summarizes the importance of diversity and how differences can strengthen an organization. This paper will review how the composition of the workforce has changed over the years. It will cover the importance of diversity in today’s current workforce, conflicts related to it, and inclusion of the same. The Composition of Today’s Workforce Today’s workforce is composed by more minorities and different cultures than in the past. According to a report published by Career Builder, women, minorities and all workers over the age of 55 have seen their employment grow considerably since 2001(Brooks, 2015). These groups have different ideals and values and represent the advancement of our society. Diversity is valued and embraced in the work place. In the past, women, minorities and older workers would not have been given the opportunities they have available today. Women’s place was the house, minorities didn’t have freedom or a voice, and elders would only be necessary if they were the only ones able to do something. Laws enforced by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission have changed the status of these groups in the workplace and opened the door to new opportunities. Christina WillkieShow MoreRelatedThe Future of Human Resource Management1104 Words   |  5 Pagesrate of change in the workplace. Globalization, changing technologies, diversity and changing workforce composition is challenging managers to utilize their employees more effectively to gain competitive advantage. Given these speeding changes occurring in today s workplace, any Humane Resource professional wishing to make a strategic contribution must look closer to the future and think ahead more than ever before. 2.) Globalization and changing technologies Globalization is inevitable. It affectsRead MoreBenefits Of Diversity And Inclusion1657 Words   |  7 Pagesbusiness. With the changing demographics of society and its affect on the American workforce, organizations must truly embrace diversity and inclusion. â€Å"For companies to succeed in the global marketplace, they must make the most of the full range of their people. Companies must attract and retain the right skills, the best minds, all the required resources – and that means diversity† (Royal Bank of Canada, n.d.). There are a number of compelling reasons companies should adopt the core values of diversityRead MoreThe Importance of Eradicating Workplace Discrimination1323 Words   |  6 PagesIn the changing business environment nowadays, organizations need to differentiate themselves to gain competitive advantages to survive. One of the most important advantages is workforce diversity. Because â€Å"A well performing team will create additional value to a company by combining individuals’ strengths and take advantage of synergies that may exist, thereby making the whole greater than the sum of its parts.† (Holtzman p.75). Hence, the requirement of workforce diversity, especially heterogeneityRead MoreManaging Workforce Training And Management For Economic Survival789 Words   |  4 Pagesmaintaining a skilled-workforce shooting up, it is crucial for organizations to adapt to the changing environments and make better informed decisions in terms of workforce training and management for economic survival (Kapp, 1999). Managing workforces involve both short-term and long-term decisions to determine the most effective practices and policies to close gaps and meet future workforce needs. While long-term decisions deal with the overall composition of the workforce and the number of workersRead MoreEssay on Organizational Behavior1070 Words   |  5 Pagesal.). Organizational behavior is increasingly emphasized in todays glob al economy, as people with diverse backgrounds and cultural values have to work together. Organizational culture is the system of shared actions, values, and beliefs that develops within an organization and guides the behavior of its members(Schermerhorn et al., 2005). Two essentialRead MoreDiversity1392 Words   |  6 Pagesespecially healthcare organizations. Despite the clear value of having a diverse workforce, like increased innovation, improved financial stats, and enhanced organizational performance, reputation, healthcare organizations are still struggling to attract and retain minorities and women in leadership roles. A multicultural workforce is always a good source of various insights and perspectives needed to continually adapt to today’s ever-changing healthcare industry. American Hospital Associations InstituteRead MoreWorkforce Planning - State of New York1405 Words   |  6 PagesPage 1 Assignment 2 Our Workforce Matters A guide to work force and succession planning for New York state agencies Orla Spetrini February 5, 2012 The Workforce Matters guide for New York State agencies is a very valuable guide and relevant in 2012. It provides insight into the agency staff by recognizing the aging workforce and upcoming retirement; it recognizes the knowledge, experience and institutional memory that will leave the company once these long term employees leave.Read MoreThe Future Of Global Work Essay1457 Words   |  6 Pagesconcept on internationalization or globalization, which has become a definitive characteristic of today’s workforce. The concept of internationalization can be described as a process through which the global presence of a firm increases. In this case, a local company expands its activities to overseas markets and develops new operational units overseas that enhance its ability to generate added value. One of the major characteristic that has characterized globalization is changes in human resourcesRead MoreThe Building Blocks Of Society Essay1708 Words   |  7 Pagesquestions t hat is asked, from sociological perspective is â€Å"What are we looking at in society. What are the building blocks?† Values are described as a shared or collective goal that you don’t usually see unless you ask. Values are used as motivators, purpose and rewards and sometimes the reason we get out of bed in the morning. The building blocks of society are the challenges, values, norms, groups and roles. When there is an awareness of these building blocks a societal group is formed. Our statusRead MoreDiversity Within The Workplace Has Become A Priority For Managers1540 Words   |  7 Pagestowards a principle that to be fair, one needs to be committed to treating everyone equally (Dike, 2013). The changing composition of the labor force, in terms of ethnicity and gender, has driven businesses and organizations to reconsider their views on diversity in the workplace. In the past, American businesses have sought a workplace uniformity of workers who shared the same values, beliefs, and attitudes about work and the organization they worked for. They also believed that individuals with

Anthropological Perspectives on the Processes of Colonialism Free Essay Example, 1500 words

In The Empire s Old Clothes: Fashioning the Colonial Subject, Jean Comaroff discusses one of the colonial processes that fall under Pels second description of the anthropological view of colonialism: clothing. Clothes have always been a basic human need, but until the start of the colonial era, there was no common standard used to determine the type and number of clothes a human being should wear. In the modern era, clothing is a major component of ethnographic studies; this was not the case before the colonial period. For example, prior to the advent of colonialism, the Tswana peoples of Southern Africa wore minimalist clothing that left them mostly naked (Comaroff Comaroff 2009: 20). In reality, they were not in desperate need of better clothes because their culture made them feel comfortable in their ways. British colonialists used clothing as a platform for commoditizing the Tswana community by creating the impression that acceptable attire had to be bought, not fashioned out o f basic materials and worn (Comaroff Comaroff 2009: 21). In addition, the Tswana were compelled to move away from a liberalized way of dressing to a one-dimensional style that was restricted to suit colonialists commercial interests. We will write a custom essay sample on Anthropological Perspectives on the Processes of Colonialism or any topic specifically for you Only $17.96 $11.86/page

The Positive and Negative Effects of Technological Advancements Free Essays

string(39) " that is by the ocean waves and tides\." Cez Danielle M. Lagbas Technological advancement, with no doubt, is such a huge impact in shaping the world. As humans, unlike any other living creature, we have the ability to use our mind for reasoning. We will write a custom essay sample on The Positive and Negative Effects of Technological Advancements or any similar topic only for you Order Now Reason is the capacity for consciously making sense of things, for establishing and verifying facts, and changing or justifying practices, institutions, and beliefs based on new or existing information. [1] With this power, we are able to imagine things, and with our clever minds, we are also able to create these imaginations. Creators, inventors, experimenter, maker, founder, innovator, pioneer – these are what we call the people behind every technology existing at present. Invention has made the world what it is today. It absolutely helped our society develop into a much better world. This whole aspect of invention is what we see as technology. Technology  is the making, modification, usage, and knowledge of  tools,  machines, techniques,  crafts,  systems, methods of organization; in order to solve a problem, improve a pre-existing solution to a problem, achieve a goal or perform a specific function. It can also refer to the collection of such tools, machinery, modifications, arrangements and procedures. Technologies significantly affect human as well as other animal species’ ability to control and adapt to their natural environments. [2] Technological advancement is responsible for many changes as well in world population, life expectancy, education levels, material standards of living, and the nature of work, communication, healthcare, war, and the effects of human activities on the natural environment. Not just these conditions are affected, but also our society and our individual selves. [3] I. Medical Technology Technological Advancements have been a really huge help to the field of medicine. Technology has cured and healed millions of people all around the globe. It has affected the living of humans in a good way, and if abused, affects us in a bad way. This field deals with the maintenance, prolongment, and restoration of human health through the study, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease and injury. Research in this field has allowed doctors and researchers to discover many new treatments, drugs, medicines, and solutions that have helped lengthen the human life span. 3] This aspect of technology ensures the survival of humanity. Without technology, people would have been struggling with their health. Medicine has saved numerous innocent lives, and today it is much safer for people and for the environment. Medical technology instruments include contact lenses, wheelchairs, stethoscopes, prosthetic limbs and any other instrument that can help in diagnosing or treating an ailment. Filipinos with tumors can get a scan from a machine and this can already cause them accurate results for their surgery. Transplants also involve a very modern technology which has also helped lives. Pregnant women can check if their baby has abnormalities at a young stage of their pregnancy with the aid of technology. Neuroprosthetics have been invented so that people with paralyzed body parts can move again like they used to. Neuroprosthetics are implants placed on a nerve, or onto the central nervous system, in order to replace mobility lost by accident or disease. Motor functionality in the body reacts to outside stimuli, whether it is natural or un-natural. Neuroprosthetics could not only one day allow people with lost limbs to replace those limbs, but also may serve as a replacement parts directory for most functions of the human body. [5] Some other examples of the current advances of medical tools are CAT (Computerized Tomography) scanners , MRIs (Magnetic Resonance Imaging), defibrillators (electronic devices that are used to rescue patients who go into cardiac arrest or who are experiencing irregular heartbeats), laser cutters and medical robots. There are many benefits of using medical robots during surgery. First of all, medical robots require smaller incisions to operate, which typically mean shorter hospital stays, lesser pain, and quicker recoveries. Also, many robots eliminate the problem of hand tremors machines can be calibrated to translate relatively large motions at the controller’s console into tiny, ultrafine actions by the instruments. Doctors do not even always have to be in the same room as a patient to operate using a robot. Furthermore, robots limit blood loss in an open procedure it is not unusual for the patient to lose a liter of blood, but robots lessen this amount drastically. Additionally, robots are more precise, with arms that can rotate 360 degrees. Finally, the robotic cameras offer a clear, magnified view of surgical fields that surgeons often did not see by themselves they had to feel around for the correct parts, because fingers often obstructed their line of sight. [4] You can really see that medicine is advancing rapidly and as it advances more people are saved from diseases and sicknesses, but of course these advances would not have been made because of the previous technology they had before. In present, medical technology is already well-developed and still is developing. II. Environmental Technology Now, that our world is over populated and our resources are getting smaller, we need to preserve and save our environment. Advances in technology are helping us in doing so. Some parts of the world have a shortage of water supply. Desalination, basically removing salt and minerals from seawater, is one way to provide potable water in those parts of the world. Hydrogen fuel usage has also been experimented as a way to using pollution free fossil-fuels. With this kind of technology, cars will be running in the streets emitting nothing but clean water. As we all know, the sun is one big ball of energy, and can be converted into heat or electricity. There are two widely known solar collectors, but researchers are pushing the limits to convert the sun’s energy into electricity by using mirrors and parabolic dishes. Someday, this technology will be able to create electricity for the whole Earth and will help in preserving our resources. There is also another way to create electricity, and that is by the ocean waves and tides. You read "The Positive and Negative Effects of Technological Advancements" in category "Essay examples" People have created turbines to collect the energy from the waters, which can turn this mechanical energy into electrical energy. Carbon dioxide is the most striking greenhouse gas contributing to global warming. Researchers are trying to fix this huge problem, and they have thought of a way already. Experts suggest a method that can solve this problem, and it is by injecting the carbon dioxide into the ground before it can reach the atmosphere. [6] Today, it is very clear that man is harming the Earth. Scientists have thought of these ways to stop the harmful practices. These are the emerging nvironmental technologies of the modern world, and these technologies can save the Earth from doom. III. Gadgets, Home Electronics and Communication Communicating with different people is a great need in the life of a person. Advancements in technology have made it super easy to communicate with people who are near and afar. Gadgets like the cell phone, personal computers, telephones, the Apple Products, etc. are great examples of communication gadgets. The earliest forms of communication are the pictograms, signal, and, of course, language. Communication has advanced so much through the years. The 20th and 21st centuries have been the most rapid advancement in communication technology. The greatest advancements today is the internet, wireless free internet (Wi-Fi), E-mail, smart phones, and social networking. With just one tap of a finger, a message can already go a very long way. [7] The internet is a remarkable technological innovation that represents humanity today. The internet is the world wide, publicly accessible network of interconnected computer networks that transmit data between themselves. The internet is created for the purpose of somehow making the world smaller. It allows the people all around the globe, in modern day, to interconnect and promote globalization and information sharing. [3] Social Networking is one service from the Internet. Examples are; Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and etc. These social networks provide men and women everywhere means to interact with each other despite the distance between them. They are able to share ideas, have a meeting, chat, and talk with the use of the Internet. With just the internet connection itself and the social network you are able to see different people in your own computer screen, you can also hear them. You don’t need to meet with other people in the real life, because it already feels as if that person is with you at that particular time. With these networks too, you can go online shopping. You can buy things off the Internet and have them shipped to your house the next day. It is so easy to do, and is much affordable because the retailers don’t have to pay a rent. You don’t need to go outside your house and search for the things you need to buy. With just one click, materials are sold with the use of this technological advancement. Social networking isn’t just for these purposes though. It is also for education. There are actually schools which are online. Teachers and students also use it as a communication tool. Teachers have observed that students are frequently on the net, so they have also familiarized this trend to extend their discussions in chat forums, and to post assignments, quizzes, and tests outside the school. College students also use the Internet to apply for jobs and internships. Many schools have implemented online alumni directories which serve as makeshift social networks that current and former students can turn to for career advice. [8] Before, people need to fire some wood to cook or heat something up. Now, we have different electronics that can heat something up in seconds. Television sets back then, were large and fat. Now, they’re as thin as paper, and the visuals are amazing. Your plasma TV can also be your own computer, how incredible is that? There are also these gadgets called the iPod where in you can enter a thousand songs inside a little device. How can anyone ever expect such a small thing hold so much memory. Tablets like the Apple iPad is somehow like a laptop already. You can download numerous applications in it to use. You can even make it your own library of books. It is like an all in one gadget, which is very useful to a person’s daily life. There are still various gadgets that have been invented, which have made life easier for everyone. In the year 2006, South Korea has invented Robots that say, relay messages to parents, teach children English, and sing and dance for them when they get bored. This developed in the year of 2007. These robots help families in their homes and outside of their homes. If according goes all to plan robots will be in every South Korean household between 2015 and 2020. This plan will really change the daily habits of man and it can affect the whole world. [9] IV. Occupational/ Career Call centers use a wide variety of different technologies to allow them to manage the large volumes of work that need to be manages by the call center. These technologies ensure that agents are kept as productive as possible, and that calls are queued and processed as quickly as possible, resulting in good levels of service. Call centers have been a huge help in job applications here in the Philippines. Thousands of Filipinos have jobs because of call centers. This is one branch of technology that has promoted the economy and society to rise. [10] Technology has allowed millions of people in the world to get a job. Buildings, offices, hospitals, malls, schools everywhere involve some kind of technology somehow, and this has opened opportunities for a lot of lives. V. Effects of Technology in the World With the advancement of technology today, it is clear that it has changed the way people live their lives. Filipino families have been reaping the best out of technology in keeping their own families intact. The Filipino family still embraces traditional values with the family remaining as a person’s number one priority. Families have given 10. 9 hours of their day in the consumption of media and 14 hours for technology. Filipinos spend 6. 1 hours with their families and almost 1. 9 hours with their friends while 23. 2 hours are spent for every day essentials like sleeping, school, or work. Technology enhanced Filipinos’ Social lives. 76% said that they have friends in different countries and cities because of the internet. Also, 53% said that the technology provided them a platform in overcoming their shyness. 11] The advancements are also accompanied by the reduction in the time, effort, cost, for production of any materials from those tiny microchips to the huge machines or from the modern futuristic devices to the mega structures, they have been made with ease in design and development with the help of technology. These advancements also lead to the development of the e conomy due to the right use of technology which reduces the material production cost and the overhead charges which create savings and thus starts national development. When we look at the effects of technological advancement, even though there are a lot of good effects to be named, we must not forget the side effects and risks involved with technological advancement. Making a lot of processes digital does not only increase the comfort of the people using it, it also increases the risk of people being spammed or scammed. [12] Technology can provide us with comfort and ease, but it can make us very lazy as well. The higher risk of being scammed is also something to be constantly aware of. 1. So We Need Something Else for Reason to Mean†,  International Journal of Philosophical Studies  8: 3, 271 — 295. 2. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Technology 3. http://www. academia. edu/346486/Technological_Advancements_and_Its_Impact_on_Humanity 4. Shannen Lambdin, Lillian Bornstein, Kaitlyn Reichwaldt, Jaquelin Garcia, and Holly Lombard, http://cse. unl. edu/gem/essays/10-11/HS_1st_TheSpontaneousCombustions. pdf 5. http://www. toptenz. net/top -10-ways-sci-fi-could-help-you-live-1000-years. php 6. Sara Goudarzi, â€Å"Top 10 Emerging Environmental Technologies†, www. livescience. om/11334-top10-emerging-environmental-technologies. html 7. Michelle L. Cramer, â€Å"Advances in Communication Technology†, www. ehow. com/about_5347491_advances-communication-technology. html 8. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Social_networking_service 9. Philippine Daily Inquirer, South Koreans Ready For Life With Robots, April 3, 2006 10. Philippine Daily Inquirer, Call Centers: From Office Basics to Global Impact, March 26, 2006 11. Philippine Daily Inquirer, Research Claims Technology Good For Filipino Families, May 21, 2007. 12. http://wiki. answers. com/Q/What_are_the_effects_of_technological_advancement How to cite The Positive and Negative Effects of Technological Advancements, Essay examples

The Ramones At The Orpheum free essay sample

Who ever would have thought that three simple chords on a loud, distorted guitar could have affected millions? Apparently, Joey Ramone did, and on November 13, 1992, the Ramones further spread their barbarous chant of Gabba Gabba Hey! to a crowd of thousands at the Orpheum. This age-old band didnt play alone, though, the dynamic group Social Distortion and a new band called Overwhelming Colorfest opened up the show. Overwhelming Colorfest, despite their somewhat flowery name, gave an intense performance with punk rock covers of many famous songs, including the timeless Misfits classic Hybrid Moments. Social Distortion, with their fierce combination of 50s rock n roll with 80s punk, injected pure adrenalin into the audience. However, these two sets were dwarfed by the engulfing force of the Ramones. No pyrotechnics or laser-light shows were implemented in this concert, just pure rock. Their performance consisted almost entirely of the old material which first propelled them to fame. We will write a custom essay sample on The Ramones At The Orpheum or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Tunes like Warthog, Were a Happy Family, and I Wanna Be Sedated, among others, ignited the audience into an animalistic frenzy of insanity and anarchy. Finally, after two encores, the show came to a reluctant close. n

Writing Press Releases

Writing Press Releases Writing Press Releases Writing Press Releases By Sharon Writing press releases is big business for freelance writers and it’s easy to learn the basic skills. Press releases inform people about the products and services that individuals and companies wish to promote. Their purpose is to make the news and they’re easy to write if you learn the basic techniques. The two key elements to consider are structure and content. Structure The structure of a press release is identical to that of a news story. It follows the inverted pyramid, leading with the most important information and ending with the least important information. The lead of your press release contains the six W’s – who, what, where, why, when and how. These six elements form the basis of your story. The rest of the press release expands on these by providing background information and quotes. Press releases are short and usually fit on one page. The top of the press release usually contains either the words â€Å"For immediate release† or an embargo date that tells editors when it’s okay to publish the news in the release. The end of the release usually includes contact details so people can get more information if they need it. Content So what do you put in a press release? The key to writing a good press release is to emphasize the people aspect of your story. News is about people and that’s what other people are interested in. Another important aspect is the what’s in it for me factor. When writing a press release, emphasize how people will benefit from the product or service being promoted. These tips will get you started with press release writing. A useful and detailed example can be found here. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Freelance Writing category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:What is the Difference Between "These" and "Those"?Story Writing 101Educational vs. Educative

How To Make An Infographic In 7 Easy Steps

How To Make An Infographic In 7 Easy Steps Infographics are 30 times more likely to be read than a purely textual article. Love them or hate them, they are a rising content type for reaching your audience. Infographics are also the highest shared content type and therefore, one of the best and quickest ways to communicate data to your audience. As a designer who loves numbers, I personally fall into the ‘love’ category with infographics, but I realize that not everyone has been taught how to make this popular content type. While infographics are easy to digest, they’re not necessarily easy to create, so I hope to enlighten you in how to make an infographic in 7 easy steps from research all the way to publishing. Alright, lets do this! #Infographics are 30 times more likely to be read than a purely textual article. via @ashtonwirrenga 1. Find A Topic Before beginning any project, we must begin with two questions: ‘What?' and ‘Why?' We should know exactly what the goal of each project is, and exactly why it’s important. If you skip these two questions, two outcomes are bound to happen. Either you'll start working and get lost somewhere in the middle of the project, or you’ll create something awesome that has no purpose, which is quite sad. Personally, I’d rather make something awesome AND have it reach a goal. Then it's a win-win for everyone! In order to do that, every great infographic must begin with a good topic. Ask Yourself: What are people asking about? What problem does my audience have? What current ideas could be better explored and communicated? For example, at , we noticed that everyone was asking, "What's the best time to post on social media?" and so we turned that very question into a blog post and then an  infographic. Use the three questions above to  help you narrow in on a topic that will engage your audience and guide you through the creation process. Want to know how to make an infographic from a post you've already written? Skip to step #3 Pro Tip: Create a survey or engage with your audience on social media to see what problems you could solve with your infographic. 2. Do Your Research Now that you have a stellar topic, it’s time to do  research. This step might take some time, but it’s absolutely critical so embrace it and dig in. Find absolutely everything you can around that concept by beginning with the large resources, and then move onto the small bits and pieces that may be hiding. Again, don't be scared to invest significant time into this stage. Research is the very core of an infographic, so it's worth it in the long run. Research is the very core of an #infographic, so it's worth it in the long run. #contentmarketingGet Perspective Search for similar counterparts and find out why your topic is essential to what you’re trying to prove. Then, explore the ideas that completely oppose it. This will give you a wholesome perspective, and might even surprise or counter your initial idea. Let the data shape your topic and adjust when necessary. Remember, infographics are first and foremost research; however, boring data designed nicely  will still end up as a boring infographic. While it might seem tedious, take the time to find interesting data so you can set yourself up for one heck of an infographic.

Sincerity & Authenticity Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Sincerity & Authenticity - Essay Example Pneumatology and religiosity are the two concepts which Emily Dickinson sets out to unravel in this poem. She makes a clear delineation between the two and shuns the rigidity and traditional orthodoxy of the organized church in favor of the omnipresent ideal of God, who pervades all things. Pneumatology is the combination of two Greek words-â€Å"pneuma,† which means wind, breath or spirit (the Holy Spirit) and â€Å"logos† which means word, matter or thing. In Christian systematic theology pneumatology refers to a study of the doctrine of the Holy Spirit. Religiosity on the other hand, refers to the practices of one’s religion within the prescribed manner dictated in religious texts. â€Å"Some Keep the Sabbath Going to Church† is Emily Dickinson’s gentle questioning of the time honored ritual of keeping the Sabbath, by going to church on Sundays. For Emily Dickinson, the Sabbath or rest day which should be spent in contemplation to God, does not necessitate a visit to the church, since, she keeps it by â€Å"staying at home†. All the glories of God which religion expounds have been manifested to her in the beauty of nature, which is her church. Emily Dickinson uses the instruments of the Church to show how the very same things can be found in Nature, only if we take time to perceive and understand them. Hence, to Emily the chorister’s role (the lead singer in the church choir) is played to perfection by the bobolink, a small song-bird. The image of the bobolink can be understood better when we examine the physical characteristics of the bird. It is black on the underside and white on the back, which makes it stand out while singing in springtime. During winter it sheds it plumage and merges with the trees, just like the poet, who leads her life as a recluse, only coming-out rarely in public. The bobolink, which has already been addressed as the chorister, is given the second role of the sexton when Emily says - â€Å"And

Should public funding be used to provide early childhood education to Essay

Should public funding be used to provide early childhood education to all children - Essay Example However, this fact notwithstanding, the following analysis will consider the extent to which governmental funding of early childhood education would be a net good or an overall net bad from educational, economic, and societal standpoints. As a function of answering such a broad question, it is the hope of this particular author that the reader will be able to draw a more well rounded answer to a question that would otherwise evoke a rather emotional response from the perspective shareholders within the process as well as the taxpayers that will ultimately be left holding the bill regardless of what particular approach is engaged. By analyzing these determinants, it is the further intention of the author that the pros and cons of such a broad and overarching funding will be made manifest and allow the reader to come away with a rather clear understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of such a system might be. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, one must integrate an understanding and appreciation for the economic constraints that universal government sponsorship of early childhood education would portend. ... As a function of understanding the means by which the United States government ultimately operates, one comes away with the understanding that the elected representatives are responsible to the shareholder citizens with regards to the legislation and proposed budget. In this way, it is easy to see how, regardless of current budgetary shortfalls, a large enough response from the electorate would force the hand of the federal government to act in a way to provide such services to the electorate. Naturally, in doing so, this would have a strong negative impact upon other vital functions of the government, to include many other forms of needed social programs; perhaps Medicaid, Medicare, and/or Social Security funding (Hart 64). As such, it is necessary for the reader/researcher to consider the fact that without exponentially raising tax rates, it will be impossible to seek to add a broad new level of government services without directly robbing from one program to help to pay for anothe r one. From the educational standpoint, the application of universal childhood education can have a massive benefit to the further development of educational standards within the lifetime of the student and can serve to provide a sound basis upon which the educators involved can seek to build. Within the current system, only some shareholders within the student body have the opportunity and/or the means to engage within childhood education. Although this should not be seen as a definitive disadvantage, the fact of the matter is that it provides an unequal footing upon which the first few grades must integrate with the students. A level of basic assumption cannot be provided with relation to what has been covered and what has not. In

Case Study: Elderly Patient with Several Concerns

Case Study: Elderly Patient with Several Concerns Daniel Littlewood   Case study Mrs Hiruni Jupangati You are an Enrolled Nurse working in the small public hospital in Cattelanbaa, rural QLD. This is your first job since completing the Diploma of Nursing and you have been working here for the past month. Mrs Hiruni Jupangati (born 20/05/1929) was admitted by her GP last night with exacerbation of asthma. She was born in Sri Lanka but migrated to Australia with her Australian Aboriginal husband whom she met during the 2nd World War. He worked as a stockman for a nearby cattle station until he retired to their small house in town 25 years ago. Their eldest son left home as a teenager and hasnt maintained contact with the family. Mrs Jupangati has 2 other children a daughter who lives on a sheep station just out of town, and a son who is a remote Aboriginal health worker in the NT. Mrs Jupangati has lived alone since her husband of 68 years died suddenly from a stroke 9 months ago. Although she is eligible for a place in a nursing home in Bigganbad, the regional centre 650km away, she is determined to see out her days at home. She receives support from the community nurse for wound care and her daughter who visits weekly to help with housework etc. She enjoys pottering in her vegetable and herb gardens, cooking Sri Lankan food, watching cricket and making robes for the Katina ceremony. Hiruni likes to spend time every day meditating, chanting from the Pali canon, and burning incense. The Buddhist monk visits once a month from Bigganbad and she attends the annual Poson and Katina festivals in Brisbane with her daughter. Mrs Jupangati has some mild short term memory loss and her GP noted she seemed somewhat confused during his visit. While she is normally independent in performing her ADLs, Hiruni attends to them once or twice per week. She wears a light pad for some urge urine incontinence. After 45 years of smoking heavily she stopped 5 years ago. Mrs Jupangati had excision of cataracts and insertion of IOL 2 years ago and wears glasses for reading. She can mobilise short distances independently with a walking frame. Mrs Jupangati has Osteoarthritis in her back, right hip and both knees. She had a left total hip replacement 6 months ago and is on the waiting list for the other joint replacements. She was diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) 5 years ago and has required insulin for the past 3 years. Her BGLs have been reasonably stable over that time. Along with Asthma and Diabetes, Mrs Jupangatis medical history includes Rheumatic fever as a child, Ischaemic Heart Disease (she had CABG 25 years ago), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF), and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). At age 67 Mrs Jupangati had a left mastectomy and axillary clearance for breast cancer. Treatment included radiation and chemotherapy. There has been no apparent reoccurrence although she has not complied with follow-up mammograms which can only be done in Bigganbad. Mrs Jupangati has had four admissions to the local hospital in the past 6 months. One was for a fall and the other 3 for exacerbation of COPD and respiratory tract infections. She has a small skin tear on her right forearm, a diabetic ulcer on her left foot, and 2 small scratches from gardening on her right lower leg, all of which are being managed by the community nurse GP. Mrs Jupangati has several missing and decayed teeth. She is complaining of painful areas on her coccyx and red right heel since watching the recent cricket test series on TV. She wears hearing aids though needs reminding to use them. Patient observations on arrival to the hospital were as follows: Height 150cm Weight 87kg BP 160/90 Pulse 108 irregular Respirations 32 Temperature 37.8C O2 saturations 84% room air BSL 8.2mmol/l Urinalysis pH 6.0, SG 1010, Nitrates +, Leukocytes ++, Blood ++, urine cloudy and offensive Current Medications: Lantus Actrapid Seretide and Ventolin inhalers Panadol Osteo Voltaren Gel (her daughter gave this to her last week to help with arthritic pain) Oxycodone PRN Frusemide Enalapril Prednisolone Atorvastatin Coloxyl and Senna Pending investigations: Chest X-Ray Blood tests Spirometry Mid-stream urine (MSU) Other orders: TED stockings Bed rest with toilet privileges Oxygen @ 2L/min via nasal prongs Fluid balance bowel charts Q2:Identify, list and briefly outline the use for the equipment required to obtain all of Hiruni Jupangatis observations and complete the assessment form. A2: As written in (Tollefson, J., Watson, G., Jelly, E., Tambree, K., Bishop, T, 2015, pp.10-30, 66-98) the equipment required to carry out the observations for Mrs Jupangati are: Gloves and hand wash aid in preventing spread of infection. Height and weight scales needed to find BMI. Calculator to work out BMI. Blood Pressure and sphygmomanometer with BP cuff to take blood pressure. Stethoscope to listen to heart beat. Pen torch to check if PEARL. Watch for RR and pulse rates. Thermometer with probe covers take temperature. Pulse oximeter to get Mrs Jupangati SpO2 level. Urinalysis Commode, bedpan as required/ PPE/ specimen container/ urinalysis bottle with regent strips/ paper towel/ perineal care equipment/ watch/ pen and paper. BGL Glucometer/ cotton balls or gauze/ lancet/ sharps container/ testing strip/ diabetic chart/ warm water. Computer / relevant forms and pen to document data collected. Satisfactory Needs revision Q3:List five (5) strategies you could implement to enable Heroin to meet her emotional, psychosocial and spiritual needs. Identify 3 ways you would ensure both her privacy and confidentiality are maintained while she is an inpatient. A3: Understanding how Mrs Jupangati culture belief view health care will help to tailor questions and treatment plans to the Mrs Jupangati needs. By asking Mrs Jupangati about her religious and spiritual practice, you can learn something about Mrs Jupangati health care choices and preferences. Get to know Mrs Jupangati health problems will help you to develop a care plan for Mrs Jupangati, also involve Mrs Jupangati in her care plan. Anticipate Mrs Jupangati needs this will show Mrs Jupangati that you do care and that you want to provide Mrs Jupangati with the best plan of care possible. Gain Mrs Junpangati trust by providing consistent, respectful and patient-focused care, follow through on commitments and have an accepting attitude rather than being judgmental (Crisp, Douglas, Rebeiro, Waters, 2016 pp 447- 449 ). Three ways you would ensure Mrs Junpangati privacy are environment which is drawing curtains, closing windows and doors. No gossiping about her to staff members and patie nts. Do not post anything about her on social (Crisp et al., 2016 p225). Satisfactory Needs revision Q4What communication techniques would you use when interviewing/assessing Hiruni and explain briefly how they would assist you. A4: Active listening is taking an interest in what Mrs Junpangati has to say through verbal signal, nonverbal gestures, and body language. Using active listening will help build trust with Mrs Junpangati(Crisp et al., 2016 p222 ) . Using body language and gestures is important in making a connection with Mrs Junpangati, by taking the time to make eye contact, smiling, leaning forward and focusing my attention on Mrs Junpangati will help make a connection with her(Crisp et al., 2016 p223). Asking open end questions will require Mrs Junpangati to expand on her answer. English is Mrs Junpangati second language Junpangati may have difficult communicating, then closed questions may be required. Mrs Junpangati cultural difference and ESL may require me to prompt her, using clarification/validating techniques to build trust(Crisp et al., 2016 p224 ). Satisfactory Needs revision Q5:Review Mrs Jupangatis vital signs and observations. Identify whether they are within the normal range. If they are not within normal range state what the normal range and variance is and what the variance may indicate. Discuss your relevant duty of care expectations as an EN. A5: An EN duty of care expectations are to document, ensuring confidentiality of all vital signs and observations immediately after they are done. Any abnormalities of the vital signs and observations should be reported immediately to the RN so further action can be taken (Crisp et al., 2016 p173). Satisfactory Needs revision Q9:Identify four (4) potential risks in collecting the MSU and discuss what you, as the EN, would do to minimise these risks. Briefly state what relevance an environmental policy/procedure would have to Mid-Stream Urine collection/testing. A9: Four potential risks are contamination, infection, urine spill and incorrect labelling. These risks can be minimise by making sure the container is sterile, not touching the inside of the container, the specimen is taken mid-stream as required. Wear gloves to avoid infection and contamination and follow hand hygiene policy. Use ppe such as gloves, apron and glasses in case it splashes everywhere. To avoid incorrect labelling fill out the label before you give the container to Mrs Junganati, verify with Mrs Junganati details as the label is fill out and make sure the correct test procedure is written on the label as well (Crisp et al., 2016 pp 648-658 ).The relevance an environmental policy/procedure would have to a mid-Stream Urine collection/testing is it would tell you how to dispose of the urine and container correctly (Crisp et al., 2016 pp 132-133). Satisfactory Needs revision Q10:Explain good documentation standards/principles you would use as an EN caring for Mrs Jupangati. A10: Good documentation standards/principles are making sure all documents are focussed, accurate. Complete, timely, understandable, always objective and legible. On every document must be the unique identifier or medical record number, patients full name, DOB, gender. For good documentation entries must be neat, legible and English, must have proper grammar and spelling, must be accurate and clear, use black ink which is easily reproducible, use approved symbols and abbreviations, use the 24hr clock time sequenced, all entries from students must be countersigned by clinician who is supervising, all entries must be signed by author, followed by name and designation, make sure all entries are factual (Crisp et al., 2016 pp178-181). Satisfactory Needs revision Q13:Using your knowledge of anatomy and physiology identify and discuss three (3) possible causes of Mrs Jupangatis collapse. A13: Mrs Jupangati has osteoarthritis in her back, right hip and both knees. She also had a total left hip replacement 6 months ago and is on the waiting list for other joint replacements. She has also been admitted to hospital in the last 6 months with a fall. Mrs Jupangati has arthritis along with osteoarthritis which cause the cartilage or cushion between joints breaks down leading to pain, stiffness and swelling. Mrs Jupangati may have fell because her joints gave way or they lock up (Nazarko, 2015). Mrs Jupangati has type 2 Diabetes, she is taking insulin injections for her type 2 diabetes. Mrs Jupangati is obese which may be the cause she has type 2 diabetes. With Type 2 diabetes, the pancreas usually produces some insulin. But either the amount produced is not enough for the bodys needs, or the bodys cells are resistant to it. Symptoms of diabetes may include fatigue, blurred vision and loss of consciousness (rare). Type 2 diabetes also increases your risk of a stroke. Mrs Janpangati might have miss her insulin medication, which means glucose cannot make it into the cells to provide energy to the body, which may have cause Mrs Janpangati to have fatigue, blurred vision and loss of consciousness which cause her to fall (Nazarko, 2015). Mrs Jupangati was admitted last night with exacerbation of asthma. She was admitted with a very high respiratory rate. Mrs Jupangati use to smoke for 45 years. Mrs Jupangati has COPD and asthma which cause narrowing of the airways. Mrs Jupangati is not able to get the required amount of air into her lungs because she unable to take a full breath. Mrs Junpangati is tachycardia which means her heart is working hard to supply the body with more oxygenated blood, which means the lungs have to work faster to oxygenate the blood as well. Mrs Jupangati may have had an asthma attack which may cause her unable to breathe and lose consciousness, which cause her to fall and hit her head (Nazarko, 2015). Satisfactory Needs revision Q15:List Mrs Jupangatis analgesic medications. Outline the process you would use to assess the need to give the opioid. Is an [E]EN authorised to administer the opioid? If so, explain how legislative and regulatory standards support this practice and how the EN would ensure these requirements are met whilst performing this activity. A15: Mrs Jupangatis analgesic medication is Oxycodone and Panadol Osteo. To assess to see if Mrs Jupangati needs her Oxycodone PRN a pain assessment will be required. A pain assessment consists of provoking/palliative factors what makes the pain better or worst. Quality what the pain feels like in the patient words. Region and radiation, where is the pain, does it radiate, does it occur anywhere else, have the patient point to where the pain is. Severity, have the patient rate their pain using a pain rating scale, ask the patient how much pain they have at rest and how much pain they have at movement. Time, when the pain began and how long did the pain last. Patients understanding of the cause of pain and what treatments have they tried to relieve it (Crisp et al., 2016 p1336). An EN can administer the opioid because it is a control drug. For a EN to administer Mrs Jupangatis opioid they must have written in instruction from one of the following dentist, doctor, nurse practitioner, p hysician assistant or surgical podiatrist and a doctor, dentist or registered nurse supervise, or they can give control drug to a person if has been dispense for that person doctor, dentist or registered nurse supervise (Queensland Government, 2016). Satisfactory Needs revision Q16:Review Mrs Jupangatis medical history medications. Identify urgent patient education needs, describe how you would go about this and who you would involve. A16: Diabetes, Mrs Jupangati needs to lead a heathier lifestyle I would involve the following doctor, dietician or nutritionist, accredited exercise physiologist/physiotherapist and her daughter. Blood glucose Mrs Jupangati needs to check her blood glucose levels at home to making sure she is within normal limits and Mrs Jupangati must take the required medication so the following people should be involve the RN, her community nurse and Mrs Jupangati daughter to ensure she carry out this. Pressure Area Care, Mrs Jupangati needs education on pressure injuries, how her diabetes will increases the risks, what can Mrs Jupangati do to minimise these risk and how Mrs Jupangati can care for her pressure injury. People to get involved doctor/RN speak to her and her daughter and community nurse. Wound care, involve Mrs Jupangati, daughter and community nurse. Nutrition get the following people involved nutritionist and her daughter. Advise them of what Mrs Jupangati should be eating and avoiding. Oral hygiene Mrs Jupangati needs to be refer to a dentist, educate Mrs Jupangati, community nurse and daughter, educate them on steroid medications effect on Mrs Jupangati teeth and educate them on mouth care. ADLs/hygiene involved Mrs Jupangati , community nurse and her daughter, explain to them why hygiene is so important when you are a diabetic because it can cause sores to become infected a lot easier. How to use puffers/spacer, involve Mrs Jupangati, community nurse and her daug hter. Explain the process with them and show them as well. When teaching Mrs Jupangati reduce environmental distractions, to compensate for Mrs Jupangati hearing loss and with Mrs Jupangati attention and concentration. When talking to Mrs Jupangati use a low-pitched voice, speak clearly and slowly, and face Mrs Jupangati while talking. Encourage Mrs Jupangati to use her hearing aid. Ask the Mrs Jupangati questions to verify that she has understood what been said, and give written information as backup to what youve presented orally to Mrs Jupangati. Mrs Jupangati has impaired vision, use adequate diffused light, and avoid having Mrs Jupangati face a direct source of light. Make sure Mrs Jupangati has her prescription glasses, make sure she is wearing them, and use large print for labels and instructions. Keep teaching sessions short for Mrs Jupangati between 10 to 15 minutes and schedule them to allow Mrs Jupangati to rest as needed. When teaching Mrs Jupangati any activity or skill, the pace must be set Mrs Jupangati(Crisp et al., 2016 pp 2 6-7) . Satisfactory Needs revision Q17:Identify potential causes of Mrs Jupangatis poor oral condition and describe how you could assist her in maintaining proper oral health. A17: Cause of Mrs Jupangati poor oral condition are diabetes if Mrs Jupangati poorly managed her diabetes she is at an increased risk of tooth decay and gum infections (Diabetes Victoria, 2016). She is a former smoker which can cause mouth decay. She is taking Prednisolone which may lead to bone loss in her mouth. She is taking steroids which can cause oral thrush. Mrs Jupangati has medicine for high blood pressure, analgesics and ACE inhibitors which cause insufficient saliva which cause gum disease because saliva keeps the mouth healthy (NPS MedicineWise, 2016). While Mrs Jupangati is in hospital I will help her with her oral care by assisting her with oral care twice a day. By assisting Mrs Jupangati I will educate Mrs Jupangati on why it is importance to do her oral care and it will get her in a routine. Educate Mrs Jupangati about diabetes and gum disease that she needs to have her BGL at the right level, needs to take her medication correctly and is to test her BGL regularly. Satisfactory Needs revision Q18:Discuss the potential cause of Mrs Jupangatis painful coccyx reddened right heel and explain why this might have occurred. Outline how the EN will manage this concern effectively. A18: Mrs Jupangati is 87years old, has diabetes, and limited mobility. As people age their subcutaneous fat diminishes and their skin texture flatten out. The loss of skin texture allow the epidermis to peel away, increasing the likelihood of skin tears. Mrs Jupangati has lost her skin texture and has poor blood flow to her extremities, especially legs and feet due to her diabetes. Mrs Jupangati poor glucose levels may result in a reduced blood supply which makes them more prone to infection, ulcers and pressure injuries As Mrs Jupangati has been watching the cricket sitting down for a long period of time without moving, she would be applying pressure on her coccyx and her heels on the couch. This would have interfere with her circulation because she was applying pressure which would have cause tissue death. The EN will need to do a waterlow risk assessment Mrs Jupangati must be move every two hours, the EN will need to put a mepilex INSITU on Mrs Jupangati heel and coccyx . Mrs Jupangati must have a wedge pillow under her shins and be given an air bed. The EN can wash and dry the area as well. The EN must educate Mrs Jupangati on pressure injury care and prevention, advising Mrs Jupangati to move every couple of hours. Informing Mrs Jupangati to use non-cosmetic moisturisers on her skin, check regularly for red or sores areas, and about hygiene (Crisp et al., 2016 pp724-736). Satisfactory Needs revision References       Crisp, J., Douglas, C., Rebeiro, G., Waters, D. (2016). Potter Perrys fundamentals of nursing (5 ed.). Australia: Harcourt Publishers Group Pty Diabetes Victoria. (2016). Diabetes long-term effects. Retrieved 2 19, 2017, from https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/diabetes-long-term-effects Nazarko, L. (2015). Modifiable risk factors for falls and minimizing the risk of harm. Nurse Prescribing, 13(4), 192-198. Retrieved from CINAHL database http://web.ebscohost.com NPS MedicineWise. (2016). Prednisolone (corticosteroids (oral and injectable)). Retrieved 2 19, 2017, from http://www.nps.org.au/medicines/hormonal-and-metabolic-system/corticosteroids-oral-and-injectable/prednisolone-corticosteroids-oral-and-injectable Queensland Government. (2016). Health (Drugs and Poisons) Regulation 1966. Retrieved from https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/LEGISLTN/CURRENT/H/HealDrAPoR96.pdf Tollefson, J., Watson, G., Jelly, E., Tambree, K. (2015). Essential clinical skills: Enrolled/division 2 nurses. (3 ed.). Melbourne, VIC, Australia: Cengage Learning Australia.

Decision Making Tools

P A R T I V QUANTITATIVE MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module OutlineTHE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Certainty Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More Complex Decision Tree Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS SOLVED PROBLEMS INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES DISCUSSION QUESTIONS PROBLEMS INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS CASE STUDIES: TOM TUCKER’S LIVER TRANSPLANT; SKI RIGHT CORP. ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES BIBLIOGRAPHY L EARNING O BJECTIVESWhen you complete this module you should be able to IDENTIFY OR DEFINE: Decision trees and decision tables Highest monetary value Expected value of perfect information Sequential decisions DESCRIBE OR EXPLAIN: Decision making under risk Decision making under uncerta inty Decision making under certainty 674 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The wildcatter’s decision was a tough one. Which of his new Kentucky lease areas—Blair East or Blair West—should he drill for oil? A wrong decision in this type of wildcat oil drilling could mean the difference between success and bankruptcy for the company.Talk about decision making under uncertainty and pressure! But using a decision tree, Tomco Oil President Thomas E. Blair identified 74 different options, each with its own potential net profit. What had begun as an overwhelming number of geological, engineering, economic, and political factors now became much clearer. Says Blair, â€Å"Decision tree analysis provided us with a systematic way of planning these decisions and clearer insight into the numerous and varied financial outcomes that are possible. †1 â€Å"The business executive is by profession a decision maker. Uncertainty is his opponent. Overcoming it is his mission. † John McDonaldOperations managers are decision makers. To achieve the goals of their organizations, managers must understand how decisions are made and know which decision-making tools to use. To a great extent, the success or failure of both people and companies depends on the quality of their decisions. Bill Gates, who developed the DOS and Windows operating systems, became chairman of the most powerful software firm in the world (Microsoft) and a billionaire. In contrast, the Firestone manager who headed the team that designed the flawed tires that caused so many accidents with Ford Explorers in the late 1990s is not working there anymore.THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS What makes the difference between a good decision and a bad decision? A â€Å"good† decision—one that uses analytic decision making—is based on logic and considers all available data and possible alternatives. It also follows these six steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Clearly define the problem and the factors that influence it. Develop specific and measurable objectives. Develop a model—that is, a relationship between objectives and variables (which are measurable quantities). Evaluate each alternative solution based on its merits and drawbacks.Select the best alternative. Implement the decision and set a timetable for completion. Throughout this book, we have introduced a broad range of mathematical models and tools to help operations managers make better decisions. Effective operations depend on careful decision making. Fortunately, there are a whole variety of analytic tools to help make these decisions. This modHosseini, â€Å"Decision Analysis and Its Application in the Choice between Two Wildcat Ventures,† Interfaces, Vol. 16, no. 2. Reprinted by permission, INFORMS, 901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400, Linthicum, Maryland 21090 USA. J. D E C I S I O N TA B L E S â€Å"Management means, in the last analysis, the substitution of th ought for brawn and muscle, of knowledge for folklore and tradition, and of cooperation for force. † Peter Drucker 675 ule introduces two of them—decision tables and decision trees. They are used in a wide number of OM situations, ranging from new-product analysis (Chapter 5), to capacity planning (Supplement 7), to location planning (Chapter 8), to scheduling (Chapter 15), and to maintenance planning (Chapter 17). FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKINGRegardless of the complexity of a decision or the sophistication of the technique used to analyze it, all decision makers are faced with alternatives and â€Å"states of nature. † The following notation will be used in this module: 1. Terms: a. Alternative—a course of action or strategy that may be chosen by a decision maker (for example, not carrying an umbrella tomorrow). b. State of nature—an occurrence or a situation over which the decision maker has little or no control (for example, tomorrow’s w eather). Symbols used in a decision tree: a. —decision node from which one of several alternatives may be selected. b. —a state-of-nature node out of which one state of nature will occur. 2. To present a manager’s decision alternatives, we can develop decision trees using the above symbols. When constructing a decision tree, we must be sure that all alternatives and states of nature are in their correct and logical places and that we include all possible alternatives and states of nature. Example A1 A simple decision tree Getz Products Company is investigating the possibility of producing and marketing backyard storage sheds.Undertaking this project would require the construction of either a large or a small manufacturing plant. The market for the product produced—storage sheds—could be either favorable or unfavorable. Getz, of course, has the option of not developing the new product line at all. A decision tree for this situation is presented in F igure A. 1. A decision node A state of nature node Favorable market 1 Unfavorable market Favorable market 2 Unfavorable market no thi ng uct t str on plan C e g lar Construct small plant Do FIGURE A. 1 I Getz Products Decision Tree DECISION TABLES Decision tableA tabular means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. We may also develop a decision or payoff table to help Getz Products define its alternatives. For any alternative and a particular state of nature, there is a consequence or outcome, which is usually expressed as a monetary value. This is called a conditional value. Note that all of the alternatives in Example A2 are listed down the left side of the table, that states of nature (outcomes) are listed across the top, and that conditional values (payoffs) are in the body of the decision table. 676 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L SWe construct a decision table for Getz Products (Table A. 1), including conditional values based on the following i nformation. With a favorable market, a large facility will give Getz Products a net profit of $200,000. If the market is unfavorable, a $180,000 net loss will occur. A small plant will result in a net profit of $100,000 in a favorable market, but a net loss of $20,000 will be encountered if the market is unfavorable. Example A2 A decision table TABLE A. 1 I Decision Table with Conditional Values for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES The toughest part of decision tables is getting the data to analyze.Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothing STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 In Examples A3 and A4, we see how to use decision tables. TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS The types of decisions people make depend on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three decision-making environments: †¢ †¢ †¢ Decision making under uncertainty Decision making under risk Decision m aking under certainty Decision Making Under UncertaintyWhen there is complete uncertainty as to which state of nature in a decision environment may occur (that is, when we cannot even assess probabilities for each possible outcome), we rely on three decision methods: Maximax A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome. Maximin A criterion that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome. Equally likely A criterion that assigns equal probability to each state of nature. Maximax—this method finds an alternative that maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.First, we find the maximum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative with the highest possible gain, it has been called an â€Å"optimistic† decision criterion. 2. Maximin—this method finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome for every altern ative. First, we find the minimum outcome within every alternative, and then we pick the alternative with the maximum number. Because this decision criterion locates the alternative that has the least possible loss, it has been called a â€Å"pessimistic† decision criterion. . Equally likely—this method finds the alternative with the highest average outcome. First, we calculate the average outcome for every alternative, which is the sum of all outcomes divided by the number of outcomes. We then pick the alternative with the maximum number. The equally likely approach assumes that each state of nature is equally likely to occur. Example A3 applies each of these approaches to the Getz Products Company. 1. Example A3 A decision table analysis under uncertainty Given Getz’s decision table of Example A2, determine the maximax, maximin, nd equally likely decision criteria (see Table A. 2). TABLE A. 2 I Decision Table for Decision Making under Uncertainty STATES OF NAT URE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MARKET MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 MAXIMUM IN ROW $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 Maximax MINIMUM IN ROW $180,000 $20,000 $ 0 Maximin ROW AVERAGE $10,000 $40,000 $ 0 Equally likely ALTERNATIVES There are optimistic decision makers (â€Å"maximax†) and pessimistic ones (â€Å"maximin†). Maximax and maximin present best case–worst case planning scenarios. Construct large plant Construct small plant Do nothingTYPES 1. 2. 3. OF D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G E N V I RO N M E N T S 677 The maximax choice is to construct a large plant. This is the maximum of the maximum number within each row, or alternative. The maximin choice is to do nothing. This is the maximum of the minimum number within each row, or alternative. The equally likely choice is to construct a small plant. This is the maximum of the average outcome of each alternative. This approach assumes that all outcomes for any alternative are equally likely. Decision Making Under Risk Expected monetary value (EMV)The expected payout or value of a variable that has different possible states of nature, each with an associated probability. Decision making under risk, a more common occurrence, relies on probabilities. Several possible states of nature may occur, each with an assumed probability. The states of nature must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive and their probabilities must sum to 1. 2 Given a decision table with conditional values and probability assessments for all states of nature, we can determine the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative.This figure represents the expected value or mean return for each alternative if we could repeat the decision a large number of times. The EMV for an alternative is the sum of all possible payoffs from the alternative, each weighted by the probability of that payoff occurring. EMV (Alternative i ) = ( Payoff of 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Payoff of 2nd state of nature) ? (Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Payoff of last state of nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) Example A4 illustrates how to compute the maximum EMV. Example A4Expected monetary value Excel OM Data File ModAEx4. xla Getz Products operations manager believes that the probability of a favorable market is exactly the same as that of an unfavorable market; that is, each state of nature has a . 50 chance of occurring. We can now determine the EMV for each alternative (see Table A. 3): 1. 2. 3. EMV(A1) = (. 5)($200,000) + (. 5)( $180,000) = $10,000 EMV(A2) = (. 5)($100,000) + (. 5)( $20,000) = $40,000 EMV(A3) = (. 5)($0) + (. 5)($0) = $0 The maximum EMV is seen in alternative A2. Thus, according to the EMV decision criterion, Getz would build the small facility. TABLE A. I Decision Table for Getz Products ALTERNATIVES Construct large plant (A1) Construct small plant (A2) Do nothing (A3) Probabilities STATES OF NATURE FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORA BLE MARKET $200,000 $100,000 $ 0 . 50 $180,000 $ 20,000 $ 0 . 50 Decision Making Under Certainty Now suppose that the Getz operations manager has been approached by a marketing research firm that proposes to help him make the decision about whether to build the plant to produce storage sheds. The marketing researchers claim that their technical analysis will tell Getz with certainty whether the market is favorable for the proposed product.In other words, it will change Getz’s environment from one of decision making under risk to one of decision making under certainty. This information could prevent Getz from making a very expensive mistake. The marketing research firm would charge Getz $65,000 for the information. What would you recommend? Should the operations manager hire the firm to make the study? Even if the information from the study is perfectly accurate, is it worth $65,000? What might it be worth? Although some of these questions are difficult to answer, 2To EVPI pla ces an upper limit on what you should pay for information. eview these and other statistical terms, refer to the CD-ROM Tutorial 1, â€Å"Statistical Review for Managers. † 678 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S determining the value of such perfect information can be very useful. It places an upper bound on what you would be willing to spend on information, such as that being sold by a marketing consultant. This is the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), which we now introduce. Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) The difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk.If a manager were able to determine which state of nature would occur, then he or she would know which decision to make. Once a manager knows which decision to make, the payoff increases because the payoff is now a certainty, not a probability. Because the payoff will increase with knowledge of which state of nature will occur, this knowledge has value. Therefore, we now look at how to determine the value of this information. We call this difference between the payoff under certainty and the payoff under risk the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). EVPI = Expected value under certainty Maximum EMVExpected value under certainty The expected (average) return if perfect information is available. To find the EVPI, we must first compute the expected value under certainty, which is the expected (average) return if we have perfect information before a decision has to be made. To calculate this value, we choose the best alternative for each state of nature and multiply its payoff times the probability of occurrence of that state of nature. Expected value under certainty = (Best outcome or consequence for 1st state of nature) ? (Probability of 1st state of nature) + (Best outcome for 2nd state of nature) ? Probability of 2nd state of nature) + L + (Best outcome for last state o f nature) ? (Probability of last state of nature) In Example A5 we use the data and decision table from Example A4 to examine the expected value of perfect information. Example A5 Expected value of perfect information By referring back to Table A. 3, the Getz operations manager can calculate the maximum that he would pay for information—that is, the expected value of perfect information, or EVPI. He follows a two-stage process. First, the expected value under certainty is computed. Then, using this information, EVPI is calculated.The procedure is outlined as follows: 1. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"favorable market† is â€Å"build a large facility† with a payoff of $200,000. The best outcome for the state of nature â€Å"unfavorable market† is â€Å"do nothing† with a payoff of $0. Expected value under certainty = ($200,000)(0. 50) + ($0)(0. 50) = $100,000. Thus, if we had perfect information, we would expect (on the average) $100 ,000 if the decision could be repeated many times. The maximum EMV is $40,000, which is the expected outcome without perfect information. Thus: EVPI = Expected value under certainty ? Maximum EMV = $100, 000 ? 40, 000 = $60, 000 In other words, the most Getz should be willing to pay for perfect information is $60,000. This conclusion, of course, is again based on the assumption that the probability of each state of nature is 0. 50. 2. DECISION TREES Decisions that lend themselves to display in a decision table also lend themselves to display in a decision tree. We will therefore analyze some decisions using decision trees. Although the use of a decision table is convenient in problems having one set of decisions and one set of states of nature, many problems include sequential decisions and states of nature.When there are two or more sequential decisions, and later decisions are based on the outcome of prior ones, the decision tree approach becomes appropriate. A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature. Expected monetary value (EMV) is the most commonly used criterion for decision tree analysis. One of the first steps in such analysis is to graph the decision tree and to specify the monetary consequences of all outcomes for a particular problem.Decision tree A graphical means of analyzing decision alternatives and states of nature. DECISION TREES Decision tree software is a relatively new advance that permits users to solve decisionanalysis problems with flexibility, power, and ease. Programs such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree allow decision problems to be analyzed with less effort and in greater depth than ever before. Full-color presentations of the options open to managers always have impact. In this photo, wildcat drilling options are explored with DPL, a product of Syn copation Software. 679 Analyzing problems with decision trees involves five steps: 1. 2. . 4. 5. Define the problem. Structure or draw the decision tree. Assign probabilities to the states of nature. Estimate payoffs for each possible combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values (EMV) for each state-of-nature node. This is done by working backward—that is, by starting at the right of the tree and working back to decision nodes on the left. Example A6 Solving a tree for EMV A completed and solved decision tree for Getz Products is presented in Figure A. 2. Note that the payoffs are placed at the right-hand side of each of the tree’s branches.The probabilities (first used by Getz in Example A4) are placed in parentheses next to each state of nature. The expected monetary values for each state-ofnature node are then calculated and placed by their respective nodes. The EMV of the first node is $10,000. T his represents the branch from the decision node to â€Å"construct a large plant. † The EMV for node 2, to â€Å"construct a small plant,† is $40,000. The option of â€Å"doing nothing† has, of course, a payoff of $0. The branch leaving the decision node leading to the state-of-nature node with the highest EMV will be chosen. In Getz’s case, a small plant should be built.EMV for node 1 = $10,000 = (. 5) ($200,000) + (. 5) (–$180,000) Payoffs Favorable market (. 5) $200,000 Co n ct stru e larg pla nt 1 Unfavorable market (. 5) Favorable market (. 5) 2 Unfavorable market (. 5) –$ 20,000 –$180,000 $100,000 Construct small plant Do no th in g EMV for node 2 = $40,000 = (. 5) ($100,000) + (. 5) (–$20,000) $0 FIGURE A. 2 I Completed and Solved Decision Tree for Getz Products 680 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S A More Complex Decision Tree There is a widespread use of decision trees beyond OM. Managers often appreciat e a graphical display of a tough problem.When a sequence of decisions must be made, decision trees are much more powerful tools than are decision tables. Let’s say that Getz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. Before deciding about building a new plant, Getz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey, at a cost of $10,000. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Getz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.Getz’s new decision tree is represented in Figure A. 3 of Example A7. Take a careful look at this more complex tree. Note that all possible outcomes and alternatives are included in their logical sequence. This procedure is one of the strengths of using decision trees. The manager is forced to examine all possible outcom es, including unfavorable ones. He or she is also forced to make decisions in a logical, sequential manner. Examining the tree in Figure A. 3, we see that Getz’s first decision point is whether to conduct the $10,000 market survey.If it chooses not to do the study (the lower part of the tree), it can either build a large plant, a small plant, or no plant. This is Getz’s second decision point. If the decision is to build, the market will be either favorable (. 50 probability) or unfavorable (also . 50 probability). The payoffs for each of the possible consequences are listed along the right-hand side. As a matter of fact, this lower portion of Getz’s tree is identical to the simpler decision tree shown in Figure A. 2. Example A7 A decision tree with sequential decisions First Decision Point Second Decision Point $106,400 Favorable market (. 8) nt Payoffs $190,000 2 $49,200 1 Su re rve fav sult y (. 4 ora s 5) ble $106,400 la –$190,000 ep $63,600 Favorable market (. 78) arg L $ 90,000 Small 3 Unfavorable market(. 22) plant –$ 30,000 No pla nt –$ 10,000 Unfavorable market (. 22) vey –$87,400 Favorable market (. 27) pla nt $190,000 –$190,000 $ 90,000 –$ 30,000 –$ 10,000 y( rve Su ults e res ativ g ne t sur 4 Unfavorable market (. 73) (. 27) .55 arke $2,400 Con duct m L e arg $2,400 Favorable market 5 ) Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 73) No pla $49,200 $40,000 FIGURE A. 3 I Getz Products Decision Tree with Probabilities and EMVs ShownThe short parallel lines mean â€Å"prune† that branch, as it is less favorable than another available option and may be dropped. Do t no co nd uc ts ur ve y $10,000 Favorable market pla nt (. 5) $200,000 –$180,000 $100,000 –$ 20,000 $0 6 Unfavorable market (. 5) (. 5) L e arg $40,000 Favorable market 7 Small plant nt Unfavorable market (. 5) No pla DECISION TREES You can reduce complexity by viewing and solving a number of smaller treesâ⠂¬â€ start at the end branches of a large one. Take one decision at a time. 681 The upper part of Figure A. 3 reflects the decision to conduct the market survey.State-of-nature node number 1 has 2 branches coming out of it. Let us say there is a 45% chance that the survey results will indicate a favorable market for the storage sheds. We also note that the probability is . 55 that the survey results will be negative. The rest of the probabilities shown in parentheses in Figure A. 3 are all conditional probabilities. For example, . 78 is the probability of a favorable market for the sheds given a favorable result from the market survey. Of course, you would expect to find a high probability of a favorable market given that the research indicated that the market was good.Don’t forget, though: There is a chance that Getz’s $10,000 market survey did not result in perfect or even reliable information. Any market research study is subject to error. In this case, there remai ns a 22% chance that the market for sheds will be unfavorable given positive survey results. Likewise, we note that there is a 27% chance that the market for sheds will be favorable given negative survey results. The probability is much higher, . 73, that the market will actually be unfavorable given a negative survey. Finally, when we look to the payoff column in Figure A. , we see that $10,000—the cost of the marketing study—has been subtracted from each of the top 10 tree branches. Thus, a large plant constructed in a favorable market would normally net a $200,000 profit. Yet because the market study was conducted, this figure is reduced by $10,000. In the unfavorable case, the loss of $180,000 would increase to $190,000. Similarly, conducting the survey and building no plant now results in a $10,000 payoff. With all probabilities and payoffs specified, we can start calculating the expected monetary value of each branch.We begin at the end or right-hand side of the decision tree and work back toward the origin. When we finish, the best decision will be known. 1. Given favorable survey results, EMV (node 2) = (. 78)($190, 000) + (. 22)( ? $190, 000) = $106, 400 EMV (node 3) = (. 78)($90, 000) + (. 22)( ? $30, 000) = $63,600 The EMV of no plant in this case is plant should be built. Given negative survey results, $10,000. Thus, if the survey results are favorable, a large 2. EMV (node 4) = (. 27)($190, 000) + (. 73)( ? $190, 000) = ? $87, 400 EMV (node 5) = (. 27)($90, 000) + (. 73)( ? $30, 000) = $2, 400 The EMV of no plant is again $10,000 for this branch.Thus, given a negative survey result, Getz should build a small plant with an expected value of $2,400. Continuing on the upper part of the tree and moving backward, we compute the expected value of conducting the market survey. EMV(node 1) = (. 45)($106,400) + (. 55)($2,400) = $49,200 4. If the market survey is not conducted. EMV (node 6) = (. 50)($200, 000) + (. 50)( ? $180, 000) = $10, 000 EMV (node 7) = (. 50)($100, 000) + (. 50)( ? $20, 000) = $40, 000 The EMV of no plant is $0. Thus, building a small plant is the best choice, given the marketing research is not performed.Because the expected monetary value of conducting the survey is $49,200—versus an EMV of $40,000 for not conducting the study—the best choice is to seek marketing information. If the survey results are favorable, Getz should build the large plant; if they are unfavorable, it should build the small plant. 3. 5. Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making Decision trees can also be a useful tool to aid ethical corporate decision making. The decision tree illustrated in Example A8, developed by Harvard Professor Constance Bagley, provides guidance as to how managers can both maximize shareholder value and behave ethically.The tree can be applied to any action a company contemplates, whether it is expanding operations in a developing country or reducing a workforce at home. 682 MODUL E A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Smithson Corp. is opening a plant in Malaysia, a country with much less stringent environmental laws than the U. S. , its home nation. Smithson can save $18 million in building the manufacturing facility—and boost its profits—if it does not install pollution-control equipment that is mandated in the U. S. but not in Malaysia.But Smithson also calculates that pollutants emitted from the plant, if unscrubbed, could damage the local fishing industry. This could cause a loss of millions of dollars in income as well as create health problems for local inhabitants. Example A8 Ethical decision making Action outcome Is it ethical? (Weigh the effect on employees, customers, suppliers, community versus shareholder benefit. ) Do it Ye s Ye No s Ye Is action legal? s Does action maximize company returns? Don't do it No No Is it ethical not to take action? (Weigh the harm to shareholders versus benefits to other stakeholders. Ye s Don't do it Do it, but notify appropriate parties Don't do it No FIGURE A. 4 I Smithson’s Decision Tree for Ethical Dilemma Source: Modified from Constance E. Bagley, â€Å"The Ethical Leader’s Decision Tree,† Harvard Business Review (January–February 2003): 18–19. Figure A. 4 outlines the choices management can consider. For example, if in management’s best judgment the harm to the Malaysian community by building the plant will be greater than the loss in company returns, the response to the question â€Å"Is it ethical? † will be no.Now, say Smithson proposes building a somewhat different plant, one with pollution controls, despite a negative impact on company returns. That decision takes us to the branch â€Å"Is it ethical not to take action? † If the answer (for whatever reason) is no, the decision tree suggests proceeding with the plant but notifying the Smithson Board, shareholders, and others about its impact. Ethical decisions can be quite complex: What happens, for example, if a company builds a polluting plant overseas, but this allows the company to sell a life-saving drug at a lower cost around the world?Does a decision tree deal with all possible ethical dilemmas? No—but it does provide managers with a framework for examining those choices. SUMMARY This module examines two of the most widely used decision techniques—decision tables and decision trees. These techniques are especially useful for making decisions under risk. Many decisions in research and development, plant and equipment, and even new buildings and structures can be analyzed with these decision models. Problems in inventory control, aggregate planning, maintenance, scheduling, and production control are just a few other decision table and decision tree applications.KEY TERMS Decision table (p. 675) Maximax (p. 676) Maximin (p. 676) Equally likely (p. 676) Expected monetary value (EMV) (p. 677) Expected value of perfect in formation (EVPI) (p. 678) Expected value under certainty (p. 678) Decision tree (p. 678) S O LV E D P RO B L E M S 683 USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS Analyzing decision tables is straightforward with Excel, Excel OM, and POM for Windows. When decision trees are involved, commercial packages such as DPL, Tree Plan, and Supertree provide flexibility, power, and ease. POM for Windows will also analyze trees but does not have graphic capabilities.Using Excel OM Excel OM allows decision makers to evaluate decisions quickly and to perform sensitivity analysis on the results. Program A. 1 uses the Getz data to illustrate input, output, and selected formulas needed to compute the EMV and EVPI values. Compute the EMV for each alternative using = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B8:C8). = MIN(B8:C8) = MAX(B8:C8) Find the best outcome for each measure using = MAX(G8:G10). To calculate the EVPI, find the best outcome for each scenario. = MAX(B8:B10) = SUMPRODUCT(B$7:C$7, B14:C14) = E14 – E11 PROG RAM A. I Using Excel OM to Compute EMV and Other Measures for Getz Using POM for Windows POM for Windows can be used to calculate all of the information described in the decision tables and decision trees in this module. For details on how to use this software, please refer to Appendix IV. SOLVED PROBLEMS Solved Problem A. 1 Stella Yan Hua is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all.The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are . 2 for a good market, . 5 for an average market, and . 3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized or small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain. What do you recommend? ALTERNATIVES Small sho p Medium-sized shop No shop Probabilities GOOD MARKET ($) 75,000 100,000 0 . 20 AVERAGE MARKET ($) 25,000 35,000 0 . 50 BAD MARKET ($) 40,000 60,000 0 . 30 684 MODULE A SolutionD E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S The problem can be solved by computing the expected monetary value (EMV) for each alternative. EMV (Small shop) = (. 2)($75,000) + (. 5)($25,000) + (. 3)( $40,000) = $15,500 EMV (Medium-sized shop) = (. 2)($100,000) + (. 5)($35,000) + (. 3)( $60,000) = $19,500 EMV (No shop) = (. 2)($0) + (. 5)($0) + (. 3)($0) = $0 As you can see, the best decision is to build the medium-sized shop. The EMV for this alternative is $19,500. Solved Problem A. 2 Daily demand for cases of Tidy Bowl cleaner at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket has always been 5, 6, or 7 cases.Develop a decision tree that illustrates her decision alternatives as to whether to stock 5, 6, or 7 cases. Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases Solution The decision tree is shown in Figure A. 5. St oc k5 ca se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases oc k7 ca Stock 6 cases St se s Demand is 5 cases Demand is 6 cases Demand is 7 cases FIGURE A. 5 I Demand at Ravinder Nath’s Supermarket INTERNET AND STUDENT CD-ROM EXERCISES Visit our Companion Web site or use your student CD-ROM to help with this material in this module. On Our Companion Web site, www. prenhall. com/heizer Self-Study Quizzes †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Internet Homework Problems †¢ Internet Cases On Your Student CD-ROM †¢ PowerPoint Lecture †¢ Practice Problems †¢ Excel OM †¢ Excel OM Example Data File †¢ POM for Windows DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Identify the six steps in the decision process. 2. Give an example of a good decision you made that resulted in a bad outcome. Also give an example of a bad decision you made that had a good outcome. Why was each decision good or bad? 3. What is the equally likely decision model? 4. Discuss the differences between dec ision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty. . What is a decision tree? P RO B L E M S 6. Explain how decision trees might be used in several of the 10 OM decisions. 7. What is the expected value of perfect information? 8. What is the expected value under certainty? 9. Identify the five steps in analyzing a problem using a decision tree. 10. Why are the maximax and maximin strategies considered to be optimistic and pessimistic, respectively? 685 11. The expected value criterion is considered to be the rational criterion on which to base a decision. Is this true? Is it rational to consider risk? 12.When are decision trees most useful? PROBLEMS* P A. 1 a) b) c) Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under uncertainty using: Maximax. Maximin. Equally likely. STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Build new plant Subcontract Overtime Do nothing VERY FAVORABLE MARKET $350,000 $180,000 $110,000 $ 0 AVERAGE MARKET $240,000 $ 90,000 $ 60,0 00 $ 0 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 20,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 P A. 2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station.Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET ($) 10,000 20,000 40,000 160,000 a) b) c) d) e) For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000.Develop a decision table for this decision. What is the maximax decision? What is the maximin decision? What is the equally likely decision? Develop a decision tree. Assume each ou tcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV. Clay Whybark, a soft-drink vendor at Hard Rock Cafe’s annual Rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd): STATES OF NATURE (DEMAND) ALTERNATIVES Large stock Average stock Small stock BIG $22,000 $14,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $12,000 $10,000 $ 8,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $4,000P A. 3 If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a big demand, 0. 5 for an average demand, and 0. 2 for a small demand, determine the alternative that provides Clay Whybark the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). P A. 4 For Problem A. 3, compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). *Note: OM; and means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows; means the problem may be solved with Excel P means the problem may be solved with POM for Windows and/or Excel OM. 686 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S H. Weiss, Inc. is considering building a sensitive new airport scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0. 4 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss’s expected profit is $40,000; if Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $10,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $100,000.Determine the EMV of each decision. For Problem A. 5, compute the expected value of perfect information. The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand at Amber Gardner’s software firm: DEMAND LOW Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 $10,000 $ 5,000 $ 2,000 HIGH $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 P A. 5 P P A. 6 A. 7 a) b) c) The probability of low demand is 0. 4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0. 6. What is the highest possible expected monetary value? What is the expected value under certainty?Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation. Leah Johnson, director of Legal Services of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide free legal advice but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time lawyer or by using part-time lawyers. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: STATES OF NATURE ALTERNATIVES Hire full-time Hire part-time Probabilities LOW DEMAND $300 $ 0 . 2 MEDIUM DEMAND $500 $350 . 5 HIGH DEMAND $ 700 $1,000 . 3 P A. 8 Using expected value, what should Ms.Johnson do? P A. 9 Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a family of new products. Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat predictable, so the manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosin g a process that is inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose among batch manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in group technology. Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he makes the process choice. Demand will be classified into four compartments: poor, fair, good, and excellent.The table below indicates the payoffs (profits) associated with each process/demand combination, as well as the probabilities of each long-term demand level. POOR Probability Batch Custom Group technology a) b) . 1 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $1,000,000 FAIR . 4 $1,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 500,000 GOOD . 3 $1,200,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 EXCELLENT . 2 $1,300,000 $ 800,000 $2,000,000 Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest gain? What would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast that would accurately determine the level of demand in the future?Julie Resler’s company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet incre asing demand. If demand is high in the future, a major expansion will result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low there will be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, a minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, there will be a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50% chance demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize long-run average profits? P A. 10 P RO B L E M S 87 P A. 11 The University of Dallas bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 90 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Curtis Ketterman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Curtis believes that the distribution of sales may range from 70 to 90 units, according to the foll owing probability model: Demand Probability 70 . 15 75 . 30 80 . 30 85 . 0 90 . 05 a) b) This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $112. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $36. Construct the table of conditional profits. How many copies should the bookstore stock to achieve highest expected value? Palmer Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One product is a cheese spread sold to retail outlets. Susan Palmer must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that demand will be 6 cases is . , for 7 cases it is . 3, for 8 cases it is . 5, and for 9 cases it is . 1. The cost of every case is $45, and the price Susan gets for each case is $95. Unfortunately, any cases not sold by the end of the month are of no value as a result of spoilage. How many cases should Susan manufacture each month? Ronald Lau, chief engineer at South Dak ota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000.At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50-50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision?Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Karen Villagomez, president of Wright Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in the Ozarks. Her decision is summarized in the following table: ALTERNATIVES Build large plant Build small plant Don’t build Market probabilities FAVORABLE MARKET $400,000 $ 80,000 $ 0 0. 4 UNFAVORABLE MARKET $300,000 $ 10,000 $ 0 0. 6 P A. 12 A. 13 P A. 14 a) b) c) A. 15 Construct a decision tree. Determine the best strategy using expected monetary value (EMV). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Denver Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: PERCENT DEFECTIVE 1 3 5 PROBABILITY LOOMBA TECHNOLOGY . 70 . 20 . 10 PROBABILITY STEWART-DOUGLAS ENTERPRISES . 30 . 30 . 40 FOR FOR a) b) For example, the probability of getting a batch of tests that are 1% defective from Loomba Technology is . 70. Because Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order, this would mean that there is a . 7 probability of getting 100 defective tests out of the 10,000 tests if Loomba Technolo gy is used to fill the order.A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0. 50. Although the quality of the test sets of the second supplier, Stewart-Douglas Enterprises, is lower, it will sell an order of 10,000 test sets for $37 less than Loomba. Develop a decision tree. Which supplier should Kellogg use? 688 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Des Moines ballpark, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).STATES OF NATURE (SIZE OF CROWD) ALTERNATIVES Large inventory Average inventory Small inventory LARGE $20,000 $15,000 $ 9,000 AVERAGE $10,000 $12,000 $ 6,000 SMALL $2,000 $6,000 $5,000 P A. 16 a) b) If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0. 3 for a large crowd, 0. 5 for an average crowd, and 0. 2 for a small crowd, determine: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). The e xpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Joseph Biggs owns his own sno-cone business and lives 30 miles from a California beach resort. The sale of sno-cones is highly dependent on his location and on the weather.At the resort, his profit will be $120 per day in fair weather, $10 per day in bad weather. At home, his profit will be $70 in fair weather and $55 in bad weather. Assume that on any particular day, the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather. Construct Joseph’s decision tree. What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion? Kenneth Boyer is considering opening a bicycle shop in North Chicago. Boyer enjoys biking, but this is to be a business endeavor from which he expects to make a living. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all.Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Boyer is thinking about using, he wants to make sure he makes the correct decision. Boyer is also thinking about hiring his old market ing professor to conduct a marketing research study to see if there is a market for his services. The results of such a study could be either favorable or unfavorable. Develop a decision tree for Boyer. Kenneth Boyer (of Problem A. 18) has done some analysis of his bicycle shop decision. If he builds a large shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable; he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable.A small shop will return a $30,000 profit with a favorable market and a $10,000 loss if the market is unfavorable. At the present time, he believes that there is a 50-50 chance of a favorable market. His former marketing professor, Y. L. Yang, will charge him $5,000 for the market research. He has estimated that there is a . 6 probability that the market survey will be favorable. Furthermore, there is a . 9 probability that the market will be favorable given a favorable outcome of the study. However, Yang has warned Boyer that there is a probability of only . 12 of a favorabl e market if the marketing research results are not favorable.Expand the decision tree of Problem A. 18 to help Boyer decide what to do. Dick Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his drugstore. He can also gather additional information or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could suggest either a favorable or an unfavorable market, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small.With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is . 7. A favorable report from the study would increase the probabil ity of a favorable rental market to . 9. Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to . 4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to Holliday? P A. 17 a) b) A. 18 A. 19 A. 20 A. 21 a) b) A. 22 Problem A. dealt with a decision facing Legal Services of Brookline. Using the data in that problem, provide: The appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities. The best alternative using expected monetary value (EMV). The city of Segovia is contemplating building a second airport to relieve congestion at the main airport and is considering two potential sites, X and Y. Hard Rock Hotels would like to purchase land to build a hotel at the new airport. The value of land has been rising in anticipation and is expected to skyrocket once the city decides between sites X and Y. Consequently, Hard Rock would like to purchase land now.Hard Rock will sell the la nd if the city chooses not to locate the airport nearby. Hard Rock has four choices: (1) buy land at X, (2) buy land at Y, (3) buy land at both X and Y, or (4) do nothing. Hard Rock has collected the following data (which are in millions of euros): SITE X Current purchase price Profits if airport and hotel built at this site Sales price if airport not built at this site 27 45 9 SITE Y 15 30 6 a) b) Hard Rock determines there is a 45% chance the airport will be built at X (hence, a 55% chance it will be built at Y). Set up the decision table. What should Hard Rock decide to do to maximize total net profit?C A S E S T U DY A. 23 689 Louisiana is busy designing new lottery â€Å"scratch-off† games. In the latest game, Bayou Boondoggle, the player is instructed to scratch off one spot: A, B, or C. A can reveal â€Å"Loser, † â€Å"Win $1,† or â€Å"Win $50. † B can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Take a Second Chance. † C can reveal â€Å"Loserâ⠂¬  or â€Å"Win $500. † On the second chance, the player is instructed to scratch off D or E. D can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $1. † E can reveal â€Å"Loser† or â€Å"Win $10. † The probabilities at A are . 9, . 09, and . 01. The probabilities at B are . 8 and . 2. The probabilities at C are . 999 and . 001. The probabilities at D are . 5 and . 5.Finally, the probabilities at E are . 95 and . 05. Draw the decision tree that represents this scenario. Use proper symbols and label all branches clearly. Calculate the expected value of this game. INTERNET HOMEWORK PROBLEMS See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional homework problems: A. 24 through A. 31. CASE STUDY Tom Tucker’s Liver Transplant Tom Tucker, a robust 50-year-old executive living in the northern suburbs of St. Paul, has been diagnosed by a University of Minnesota internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker ’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker’s age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years. Discussion Q uestions 1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered? CASE STUDY Ski Right Corp. After retiring as a physician, Bob Guthrie became an avid downhill skier on the steep slopes of the Utah Rocky Mountains.As an amateur inventor, Bob was always looking for something new. With the recent deaths of several celebrity skiers, Bob knew he could use his creative mind to make skiing safer and his bank account larger. He knew that many deaths on the slopes were caused by head injuries. Although ski helmets have been on the market for some time, most skiers consider them boring and basically ugly. As a physician, Bob knew that some type of new ski helmet was the answer. Bob’s biggest challenge was to invent a helmet that was attractive, safe, and fun to wear.Multiple colors and using the latest fashion designs would be musts. After years of skiing, Bob knew that many skiers believe that how you look on the slopes is more im portant than how you ski. His helmets would have to look good and fit in with current fashion trends. But attractive helmets were not enough. Bob had to make the helmets fun and useful. The name of the new ski helmet, Ski Right, was sure to be a winner. If Bob could come up with a good idea, he believed that there was a 20% chance that the market for the Ski Right helmet would be excellent. The chance of a good market should be 40%.Bob also knew that the market for his helmet could be only average (30% chance) or even poor (10% chance). The idea of how to make ski helmets fun and useful came to Bob on a gondola ride to the top of a mountain. A busy executive on the gondola ride was on his cell phone trying to complete a complicated merger. When the executive got off the gondola, he dropped the phone and it was crushed by the gondola mechanism. Bob decided that his new ski helmet would have a built-in cell phone and an AM/FM stereo radio. All the electronics could be operated by a co ntrol pad worn on a skier’s arm or leg.Bob decided to try a small pilot project for Ski Right. He enjoyed being retired and didn’t want a failure to cause him to go back to work. After some research, Bob found Progressive Products (PP). The company was willing to be a partner in developing the Ski Right and sharing any profits. If the market was excellent, Bob would net $5,000 per month. With a good market, Bob would net $2,000. An average market would result in a loss of $2,000, and a poor market would mean Bob would be out $5,000 per month. Another option for Bob was to have Leadville Barts (LB) make the helmet.The company had extensive experience in making bicycle helmets. Progressive would then take the helmets made by Leadville Barts and do the rest. Bob had a greater risk. He estimated that he could lose $10,000 per month in a poor market or $4,000 in an average market. A good market for Ski Right would result in $6,000 profit for Bob, and an excellent market wou ld mean a $12,000 profit per month. (continued) 690 MODULE A D E C I S I O N -M A K I N G T O O L S Cellular to make the phones, and TalRad to make the AM/FM stereo radios. Bob could then hire some friends to assemble everything and market the finishedSki Right helmets. With this final alternative, Bob could realize a net profit of $55,000 a month in an excellent market. Even if the market was just good, Bob would net $20,000. An average market, however, would mean a loss of $35,000. If the market was poor Bob would lose $60,000 per month. A third option for Bob was to use TalRad (TR), a radio company in Tallahassee, Florida. TalRad had extensive experience in making military radios. Leadville Barts could make the helmets, and Progressive Products could do the rest of production and distribution. Again, Bob would be taking on greater risk.A poor market would mean a $15,000 loss per month, and an average market would mean a $10,000 loss. A good market would result in a net profit of $7,000 for Bob. An excellent market would return $13,000 per month. Bob could also have Celestial Cellular (CC) develop the cell phones. Thus, another option was to have Celestial make the phones and have Progressive do the rest of the production and distribution. Because the cell phone was the most expensive component of the helmet, Bob could lose $30,000 per month in a poor market. He could lose $20,000 in an average market.If the market was good or excellent, Bob would see a net profit of $10,000 or $30,000 per month, respectively. Bob’s final option was to forget about Progressive Products entirely. He could use Leadville Barts to make the helmets, Celestial Discussion Questions 1. What do you recommend? 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information. 3. Was Bob completely logical in how he approached this decision problem? Source: B. Render, R. M. Stair, and M. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, N. J. : Prentice Hall (2006). Re printed by permission of Prentice Hall, Inc.ADDITIONAL CASE STUDIES See our Companion Web site at www. prenhall. com/heizer for these additional free case studies: †¢ Arctic, Inc. : A refrigeration company has several major options with regard to capacity and expansion. †¢ Toledo Leather Company: This firm is trying to select new equipment based on potential costs. BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, R. V. â€Å"The State of the Art of Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 5–14. Collin, Ian. â€Å"Scale Management and Risk Assessment for Deepwater Developments. † World Oil 224, no. 5 (May 2003): 62. Hammond, J. S. , R.L. Kenney, and H. Raiffa. â€Å"The Hidden Traps in Decision Making. † 76, no. 5 Harvard Business Review (September–October 1998): 47–60. Jbuedj, C. â€Å"Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty. † Journal of Financial Planning (October 1997): 84. Keefer, Donald L. â€Å"Balancing Drug Safety and Efficacy for a Go/NoGo Decision. † Interfaces 34, no. 2 (March–April 2004): 113–116. Kirkwood, C. W. â€Å"An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis. † Interfaces 22, 6 (November–December 1992): 28–39. Perdue, Robert K. , William J. McAllister, Peter V. King, and Bruce G. Berkey. Valuation of R and D Projects Using Options Pricing and Decision Analysis Models. † Interfaces 29, 6 (November 1999): 57–74. Raiffa, H. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Certainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley (1968). Render, B. , R. M. Stair, Jr. , and R. Balakrishnan. Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Render, B. , R. M. Stair Jr. , and M. Hanna. Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall (2006). Schlaifer, R. Analysis of Decisions Under Certainty. New York: McGraw-Hill (1969).